National Opinions

Saudi Arabia’s leader doesn’t fear US fury for good reason

Intelligence reports suggest that Saudi Arabia killed Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in its Istanbul consulate earlier this month, possibly on the orders of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. MBS, as he is known, insisted to President Donald Trump this week that he didn't know anything about the incident. MBS has orchestrated a crackdown against critics in recent years as he consolidates power in anticipation of his eventual ascent to the throne.

If the crown prince or anybody else in his government is responsible, they clearly believed Saudi Arabia could get away with Khashoggi's abduction and slaying without U.S. disapproval. (Or, worse, they thought they had Washington's implied approval in advance.) There's a reason for that: MBS has developed such a close relationship with the Trump administration that he has gotten almost everything from it that he wants. In his mind, he may have concluded that, as far as U.S. policy goes, he can act with impunity.

His tightest relationship is with Jared Kushner, the president's senior adviser and son-in-law, and the closeness of their bond (Kushner successfully lobbied Trump to make Saudi Arabia his first foreign visit as president) has been well-documented. But during 2017, many in Washington, the American business community and the media fell in love with MBS and what he appeared to represent. His young and refreshing personal style was a radical departure from a history of geriatric Saudi leaders. He wanted social liberalization for his nation, including cinemas (which had been banned), live entertainment like concerts and, most of all, a policy that finally permitted women to drive cars, which he implemented in June. His ambitious plans for economic transformation involved diversifying away from the kingdom's dependence on oil; the Vision 2030 project was potentially lucrative for American businesses.

Policymakers here tolerated his clampdown on dissent – he has purged and imprisoned royals who represent rival power centers, such as the investor Alwaleed bin Talal, and expelled Canadian diplomats because one official lamented the lack of human rights there. The crown prince's greatest gift to Western allies was the "moderate Islam" he promised, which would reject Saudi Arabia's previous backing for dubious religious schools and charitable donations. An added element of the seduction was an inclusive attitude toward Israel as part of the Middle East; the Palestinian issue needed to be sorted out, but it wouldn't stop the kingdom from developing technological and commercial relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel seemed to be forming a new alliance around countering Iran.

MBS scored a major victory when Trump decided to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, which, in Saudi eyes, normalized Iran's nuclear status without containing it. The deal had been seen in Riyadh as the ultimate insult to the kingdom and a further display of former president Barack Obama's natural sympathy for Iran. It had also failed to contain Iran's missile developments; its rockets, including modified Scud-type missiles, funneled to, and launched by, Yemeni rebels, now land regularly on Saudi territory. At least two salvos have been aimed at Riyadh itself.

The war in Yemen is another MBS policy that won Washington's tacit approval. Launched in 2015, the kingdom has sought to dislodge the putsch by Houthi tribesman supported by Iran. But Saudi military inadequacies on the battlefield have been matched by incompetence in the air war, with embarrassing levels of civilian casualties caused by less-than-perfect Saudi targeting. Amid the chaos there is also a catastrophic looming famine. Last month, when members of Congress vowed to stop the flow of U.S. military assistance to the Saudi campaign, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo directed bureaucrats to keep us the aid, arguing that casualties would rise even higher without U.S. help. It was a huge victory for MBS, the war's architect.

Even before the war, the United States had been a major provider of military equipment to the kingdom, the biggest buyer of U.S. weapons. Principally it purchases F-15s for its air force, now regularly used for bombing Yemen, but the arsenal also includes Patriot missiles to protect air bases and cities from Yemeni rocket attacks and, perhaps more importantly, munitions, service and training contracts that last for years. Trump has refused repeatedly to entertain the notion of canceling any of it to shape Saudi behavior, showing MBS that he may have impunity.

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Elected officials in the United States and Europe have often been challenged – by journalists, human-rights watchdogs, Khashoggi himself – about their support for MBS. The response generally holds that his impulsiveness and authoritarianism at home has to be matched with his success in changing the kingdom from an incubator of extremism Islam to the "real" Saudi Islam MBS describes, a moderate variant derailed by the 1979 Iranian revolution. But the Islamic State-type horror of Khashoggi's demise – which appears to involve a bone-saw, a basement and more than a dozen agents flown in from Riyadh – imperils this image.

In response, members of Congress are competing to find phrases of condemnation. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., vows to prevent "business as usual" until the Khashoggi affair is explained properly, and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., jokes about avoiding Saudi Arabia while MBS is there. A number of District of Columbia strategy and communication shops have dropped the Saudis as clients.

Still, Trump left another window open for MBS by saying this week that the Khashoggi slaying may have been perpetrated by "rogue killers." After talking to the king and his heir, he said flatly that they deny responsibility, and Trump seemed to compare the royal family to Brett Kavanaugh, saying it was being judged "guilty until proven innocent." With friends like these in Washington, no wonder MBS thought he could get away with whatever he wanted.

Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

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