Politics

With the US Senate majority trending blue, Murkowski’s chairmanship is at risk

WASHINGTON — Two years ago, Lisa Murkowski stood on stage at an election night party and, shaking a chair above her head, proclaimed victory in her quest to head the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

That night, the will of voters nationwide pushed Republicans into the majority in the U.S. Senate, and Murkowski graduated out of the minority "Ranking Member" position on her committee to become chairman.

But this year, even if Murkowski regains her seat in Congress, things may be different.

In recent weeks, polling has shifted and the likelihood that Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate has grown, dramatically. Well-known statistician Nate Silver's "FiveThirtyEight" blog, which aggregates polls, predicted on Oct. 25 that there is a 73.6 percent chance that Democrats would regain control of the Senate.

Currently, Republicans hold 54 seats and Democrats 44. There are two independent senators; both caucus with Democrats. Republicans face a steeper climb this year: 24 of 34 U.S. Senate seats on the 2016 ballot are currently held by Republicans.

If the Republican Party doesn't manage to hold on to the Senate majority, Murkowski will no longer chair the powerful energy committee. She will lose her Interior and Environment subcommittee chairmanship on the Senate Appropriations Committee.

And she won't be the energy committee's top Republican in the minority either. GOP rules limit the number of years that a lawmaker can serve as Ranking Member, and Murkowski has term-limited out of that slot.

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If Republicans lose the Senate, Murkowski will no longer have a separate committee staff. There are currently 22 "majority" committee staffers, many of whom are Alaskans, according to committee spokesperson Nicole Daigle.

That's not to say that electing a Democrat, independent or Libertarian would put Alaska in a better position. Senators get committee leadership positions via seniority, and any new member would fall low in the rankings.

Senate rankings are calculated first on how long they have been in office. Senators who have been around for the same amount of time are then sorted based on previously held positions in the U.S. House or as governor of a state.

Freshmen who were not elected to higher office before joining the Senate are then ranked by their state's population.

Republican Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, elected in 2014, can attest to the result: He is currently ranked 100 out of 100 senators.

Alaska is ranked 47th in population, ahead of North Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. There are two Senate seats up for election in those states, and both are likely to remain with the incumbent.

Vermont Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy is running for his eighth term. Polls consistently show Leahy with a more than 30 percentage point lead in his race.

North Dakota Republican John Hoeven, that state's former governor, is running for his second term, and is expected to win his race.

Erica Martinson

Erica Martinson is a former reporter for the Anchorage Daily News based in Washington, D.C.

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