One of my favorite fall activities is attending the Alaska Travel Industry Association meeting. It's in Anchorage this year and it offers an insider's perspective on what's in store for the coming year in Alaska and beyond.
In light of the world's financial meltdown, travel operators are wondering how much people will be traveling. It's a fair question, and how the world responds has a direct impact on Alaska travelers.
Air travelers are watching carriers shrink before their eyes. As fares go up, up, up, available flights are drying up as well. Carriers are boosting the number of miles required for a free ticket, if such seats are available at all. With Boeing on strike, carriers are deferring their plans for new aircraft, shrinking their fleets faster.
That said, airlines still must fill the seats they have. They are not nearly as nimble or fickle as the traveling public. Many of their first class customers (high-end bankers and financiers) now are flying coach, if they're flying at all. So my guess is that, despite their best efforts to squeeze travelers for more money into fewer and fewer flights, we'll see a fair number of air sales and discounts going into the winter. Don't count on any deals during Christmas and Thanksgiving, though. Most of those seats already have been sold.
Witness the sale Alaska Airlines had to Seattle and Portland last month. The rate was $149 each way. I bought a couple of those myself, and tacked on a trip to San Francisco. That's back when oil still was more than $100 per barrel.
The sale to Seattle and Portland lasted only a week and travel was permitted for only one month. That may be what fare sales will look like in the future: last-minute, for a limited time.
The exception is the PFD travel sale, which goes through September 2009. You have to purchase your tickets by tomorrow. These deals are especially valuable for folks outside of Anchorage in Fairbanks, Kodiak or Nome. Take a look at Alaska's Web site to see if the fares work for you. I like the Chicago nonstop from Anchorage for $249 each way.
The PFD sale probably is the last chance this year to get a deal from Alaska's far-flung jet cities (Kotzebue, Barrow, Sitka) to the Lower 48. Travelers still can trim the cost of travel by using Alaska's $50 companion fare discount in conjunction with the carrier's co-branded Visa card. With taxes, the total adds up to about $92 to domestic destinations. Between Alaska and Mexico, the $50 companion fare becomes a $191 companion ticket, with all the customs fees, immigration charges and departure taxes.
Smart travelers also will use their frequent flyer miles to fly to high-cost destinations throughout Alaska. For example, if you're headed to the Pribilof Islands or Cold Bay, you're better off to use Alaska Airlines miles on PenAir instead of paying up to $1,000 per person.
For cruise travelers, 2009 could offer real bargains. This market is extremely volatile because of the economy. It's not unusual to find weeklong cruises for around $600 from Florida. Cruises from Los Angeles are a little more expensive. But watch the availability for the less-expensive cruises open up as the stock market continues to drop.
Travel insiders at this year's meeting summed it up best when they said T-shirt sales were way up in 2008, while far fewer people were planning expensive trips.
Scott McMurren is an Anchorage-based travel marketing consultant. E-mail him at zoom@toursaver.com.
SCOTT MCMURREN
TRAVEL