Look, Matt Thomas is not in denial -- he knows this has been a miserable hockey season for UAA.
As the man in charge, he's endured every second of it -- the current eight-game losing streak, the 12 losses in the last 14 games, holding down last place in the Western Collegiate Hockey Association, playoff hopes withering each weekend -- and it pains him.
"Mentally, it wears on you -- players and coaches,'' Thomas said.
Still, you don't get a lot of what-ifs from the Seawolves' second-year bench boss. You don't get too much about what are basically 10 one-goal losses, when empty-net goals are included in the equation. You don't get excuses, nor should you, given a team that has lost 10-0 and 10-2, and twice been beaten 4-0.
What you do get is a reality check -- the program is back in familiar territory, back on the ground floor, working once again on the foundation.
"It's nobody's fault,'' Thomas said. "It's just where we are. We're in a rebuild.''
That might seem disingenuous, particularly considering the Seawolves went 18-16-4 in Thomas' first season, stunned host UAF in the first round of the WCHA playoffs and were eliminated in overtime at the WCHA Final Five.
Yet at nearly every critical turn last season, nearly every time the Seawolves generated a rally to win a game, the linchpin was then-senior center Matt Bailey, the team's leading scorer and an All-WCHA pick. Thomas double-shifted Bailey in the late stages of many games, and Bailey's remarkable fitness, and stubbornness, prevailed. Granted, UAA received some good goaltending in those spots when it was necessary, and then-senior Jordan Kwas contributed too, but virtually everything stemmed from Bailey's skill and will. The score sheets said so, and so did the eye test.
Bailey's gifts were the springboard to the program's first winning season in two decades, but that season was also an illusion. UAA this season had no one who could replace Bailey and his substantial, multi-faceted role.
What last season also masked was UAA's lack of depth. Between players leaving the program early in previous coach Dave Shyiak's last seasons and recruits who reversed their commitments when UAA fired Shyiak, the Seawolves find themselves with a roster heavy on sophomores and freshmen, and light on upperclassmen. Programs like UAA, which usually can't land premier recruits, do not win with youth. They generally win with depth anchored by upperclassmen.
Thomas and his staff aim now for depth, to balance their roster so that it will be fairly even in coming seasons --- roughly equal numbers of seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen. And to attain enough depth to make players accountable, so they know a bad performance or two merits a night in the stands. The Seawolves currently lack that depth.
Thomas boils that down to recruiting better so that the bottom half of the lineup is deeper, developing those players to play the way he wants -- hard and fast, with diligence and purpose -- and sticking with the plan.
"The way we're doing it is a systematic approach,'' Thomas said. "There's a process. We know we're judged by wins and losses. But I want people to understand there's a plan in place, and we're following it.''
One piece is in place -- freshman goaltender Olivier Mantha. Teams rarely flourish without exceptional goaltending, and Mantha has delivered the best UAA has enjoyed in a decade, since Nathan Lawson patrolled the crease.
Freshman forwards like Austin Azurdia, Tad Kozun and Matt Anholt show promise too, and defenseman Jarrett Brown and Tanner Johnson had given us glimpses of potential.
"I really want people to believe in Olivier, believe in our freshmen, like I do,'' Thomas said. "I want them to believe in the whole team, of course, but I also want them to believe in the future.''
Up north, Dallas Ferguson in seven seasons leading UAF has built a strong program with a foundation of depth and the occasional big-time player -- think defenseman Colton Parayko and forward Tyler Morley. Mel Pearson in four seasons has transformed Michigan Tech. Chris Bergeron, who brings No. 11 Bowling Green to town this week, is in his fifth season and has lifted the Falcons to heights their program hasn't enjoyed for a long time.
Thomas is in the second season of his five-season contract. That buys him time, and he'll likely have to show tangible signs of progress by his fourth season.
For now, any postseason hopes the Seawolves harbor hinge on getting some wins in their last four games and hoping UAF and Ferris State give ninth-place Lake Superior State the business these next two weekends.
They need more out of junior center Blake Tatchell, the team's leading scorer, and seniors Scott Allen and Brett Cameron, and those guys know it.
About the only thing that will rescue this season is a playoff spot. Only one eligible WCHA team will be frozen out of the postseason, and UAA is that club at the moment.
Even the best-case scenario late this season -- a playoff berth -- won't mask the challenge UAA's program faces. The Seawolves have a ton of work ahead.
This column is the opinion of Alaska Dispatch News reporter Doyle Woody. Reach him at dwoody@alaskadispatch.com, check out his blog at adn.com/hockey-blog and follow him on Twitter at @JaromirBlagr
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