JUNEAU -- As the Mendenhall Glacier retreats, it is becoming ever more popular as a visitor destination.
It's been 19 years since the U.S. Forest Service, which manages the visitor center and recreation area there, has reviewed its caps on commercial visits to Juneau's most popular glacier. Since that time, said Forest Service planner Jennifer Berger, annual visits to the glacier have climbed from 200,000 per year to more than 450,000.
That has commercial tour operators, ranging from bus companies to raft, kayak, canoe and guided hiking groups, bumping up against the limits set by the U.S. Forest Service.
A new plan from Tongass National Forest will shift some of that visitor demand to guided tours on the lake and trails and away from the visitor center itself. That plan may increase tour business opportunities in Juneau, but it has come under criticism as well.
Berger said responding to the growth was needed, even if it has taken nearly 20 years.
"One of our challenges with the visitor center area proper is that there's just a good deal of congestion," Berger said.
Mendenhall Lake was one of the areas where visits were capped, Berger said.
"The demand for access to Mendenhall Lake in particular is growing rapidly as the Mendenhall Glacier recedes and the lake becomes a prime area for glacier views," the plan says.
One of the revisions to the Mendenhall Glacier Recreation Area released this week by Tongass National Forest Supervisor Earl Stewart calls for allowing more lake trips.
Tours on the lake are now entirely human propelled, including in canoes and kayaks, as well as rafts launching in the lake for trips down the Mendenhall River.
The number of commercial tours allowed are now at a cap, but individual visitors not part of tours can still access the glacier on their own.
"Visitors would still have the option to rent kayaks to tour the lake on their own, but the boat tour options would be a safer alternative for visitors who don't have the skills to safely kayak the lake on their own," the plan said. A kayaker died on the lake in 2012, the plan noted.
One of the more intriguing options that the Forest Service looked at was allowing motorized tours -- with quiet, nonpolluting electric motors only -- as a way of getting more people a better view of the glacier.
After reviewing public comments critical of that plan, Berger said it hasn't been approved yet. Many of the comments expressed concern about the impact of increased numbers of visitors on nesting birds. Others suggested that residents might get pushed out by visitors.
The Forest Service didn't approve the use of electric motors, but the management plans lays the groundwork for their future use with tours.
"We've had interest from several tourism operators who thought that they could and would like to make a go of that as a business," she said.
Water viewing is likely to increase by the retreat of the face of the glacier. It was once up close to the center, but has since retreated past a rocky peninsula. At some point, the face may not be visible from the visitor center at all.
"I feel like there probably would be demand, especially over time -- we're talking 20 to 30 years as the glacier begins to retreat up that valley," Berger said. "We have to think about what that view is going to look like at that point, and how will the public want to access and view the glacier," she said.
That's already happened at Portage Glacier, about 55 miles southeast of Anchorage in Chugach National Forest. The glacier there was once visible from the Begich, Boggs Visitor Center, but seeing the glacier now requires going on the water and most visitors see it from a commercial tour.
The complete loss of view of the Mendenhall Glacier might be a long time off, but Berger said she anticipates an increased demand for closer views.
"Possibly electric boats are a way of doing that, in addition to other sorts of travel," she said.
Lake tours now are already at the maximum allowed, but Berger said the Forest Service's analysis said that adding more trips can be done without significantly diminishing the visitor experience.
Mendenhall Glacier Visitor Center Director John Neary declined comment.
Another part of the Forest Service's initial proposal, guided hiking tours, also faced some criticism before it was approved. Guided hiking tours on the recreation area's trails are seeing some caps lifted in some places, while others remain, depending on what the analysis determined the trails could accommodate.
The Forest Service manages tours using what it calls "client days." A cap currently set at 85,000 client days will be boosted to 105,000 next year, under the plan.
Despite concerns about crowded trails and impacts on wildlife, the Forest Service says that guided groups can have far less impact than individual visitors. One reason: Each group is accompanied by a trained guide. The guides will discourage visitors from activities such as intruding on bird nesting areas or dangerous interaction with bears, it said.
But Juneau resident and frequent Mendenhall visitor Mary Willson said she doubted that.
"There's a lot of arm waving (in the plan) about how they're going to protect the wildlife, but nothing specific about how they're going to do it," she said.
The level of visitors already has impacts, such as on the tern colony on the west side of the lake, she said.
The existing level of guided groups is in some cases already too much, she said. Further, just because visitors are accompanied by a guide doesn't necessarily mean there won't be problems, she said.
Currently, guided groups of 20 sometimes spread out over 100 yards of trail with little supervision. "That's supposed to be the advantage of guided groups in terms of protecting the resources," she said.
Other times, she said, two to three such groups will bunch up at trail bridges, blocking passage.
The management plan downplayed that impact, and said that bigger impacts to wildlife often come from local residents who may bring dogs that harass wildlife. That's something the guided groups, mostly from cruise ships, typically don't do, the plan said.
That's true, Willson acknowledged, and said Juneau residents could also be better behaved around wildlife.
One area that will see a reduced cap on trips is Mendenhall River rafting, but Berger said that is due to a lack of demand.
The new management plan will be implemented next summer, but the Forest Service will begin to seek applications for the additional capacity from tour providers this summer, Berger said.
"This is really the first opportunity in 19 years to apply for a significant number of days with which to start or expand a business," she said.
A panel of Forest Service officials will determine who the best tour operators are to get the 20,000 new client days. They'll weigh factors such as customer service, safety, energy usage and investment in the local community, Berger said.
"Each business is able to make their case as to why their business is a good match for the area," she said.