New preliminary employment numbers show Alaska lost 1,700 jobs in the oil and gas sector between January 2015 and January of this year, but added large numbers of jobs in other areas.
But there's some complexity behind the numbers, which come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and a state labor economist says the losses probably aren't as widespread as they seem.
"The thing is, it looks like the losses in oil and gas are a bit too big," said Caroline Schultz, an economist with the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. "It's too quick. I mean, it's possible. But it's too big."
Schultz said the same is true for the large gains the numbers show in health care and retail -- which reflect increases of 1,100 and 2,000 jobs, respectively, between 2015 and 2016.
In comparison to the BLS numbers, the Labor Department estimates job losses in the oil sector during this time period were much smaller, at about 1,000 jobs for Anchorage and the Northern and Gulf Coast regions of the state -- the places where nearly all oil jobs would be found.
The Labor Department said there's a difference in numbers because even though the state and BLS use the same software system and data to figure out the job numbers, Alaska uses analysts to understand those numbers. BLS doesn't introduce human interpretation.
"(W)e're making these estimates with a lot of background and knowledge of Alaska's economy, historic trends," said Schultz, "and understanding of how our regional economies respond to shocks -- it is more than just consulting the tea leaves."
She also said when both the state and the BLS return to data later to revise preliminary numbers, the state usually ends up with figures closer to its original estimates than the bureau does.
Todd Johnson, a BLS economist in San Francisco, said data might change later because of the way the agency revises its preliminary numbers.
"It's kind of a special case at this time of year," said Johnson. "So our numbers can change from what we're putting out to begin with."
The Labor Department is required to put BLS data on its website as part of an agreement between the two agencies, Schultz said. But the state's informal predictions aren't posted on the department's website alongside the federal government's data.
"Yes, it is confusing and we know that," she said, referring to balancing BLS data with the state's. It's a struggle to put out accurate, timely information. "We could put out a press release that says 1,700 (oil and gas) job losses for sure. But none of us feel comfortable with that."
Alaska's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in January was 6.6 percent, unchanged from December 2015 but higher than the national unemployment rate of 4.9 percent.
The unemployment rate, not seasonally adjusted, went up in 24 of Alaska's 29 boroughs and census areas, going up by more than one percentage point in 17 of those, the Labor Department said in a news release. Schultz said it's normal for there to be a spike during this time of year for numbers that aren't seasonally adjusted.