Democrats would like us to believe that we lose elections because multibillionaires like the Koch Brothers send millions of dollars to Republican candidates. I do not believe this is true.
Sen. Mark Begich sent out missive after missive asking for money to combat the Koch Brothers, Karl Rove, etc. Yet he, Sen. Begich, also got millions of dollars from Outside millionaires, and still lost. Sen. Dan Sullivan won by the same margin that polls showed he was going to win by at the beginning of the elections, suggesting that all the millions that went into those campaigns was a waste of money, except for the Alaska economy.
I have already received a request for money to combat the Koch Brothers from the Ethan Berkowitz mayoral campaign. I assume that Berkowitz is assuming all the Republicans running against him will divide the Republican vote, allowing him the victory. The problem is that the result of the first election might be a second run-off election with Berkowitz going against the Republican winner, probably Andrew Halcro or Dan Coffey. He will then lose the second election. Why?
Democrats will be supported by young people. Young people will not vote in this election and especially not in the second election. Older people will vote, and they will mostly vote Republican against the party of Social Security and Medicare.
Men will vote, but most will vote for the Republican candidate. Women will also vote, but most of them in an election like this will vote for the Republican against the party of choice, equal rights, parental leave, etc. Most women would normally vote Democrat, but in this election the women who would vote for a Democrat won't vote at all.
Most white people who vote will vote for the Republican and, unfortunately, unless there is a massive get-out-the-vote campaign by Native leaders, most nonwhite people will not vote for the party of civil rights, immigration reform, etc. They won't vote at all.
Most married people who vote will vote for the Republican. Most unmarried people who would normally vote for the Democrat will not vote. Most people who oppose gay marriage and other gay rights will vote. Most people who generally support gay rights, but not passionately, will not vote.
Most liberals will not vote while most conservatives will vote, and their numbers are larger. Many independents will vote for the Republican just because they usually do, especially since there will not be that much difference between Berkowitz and Halcro.
Most people who would most likely vote for the Republican will. Most people who would most likely vote for the Democrat will not vote.
Please look at the May 12 edition of the New Republic, where you will find a survey by TargetSmart, a political data firm that works for the Democrats, to verify all this.
Berkowitz and the Republican candidates can spend all that they possibly can, and it won't matter. Democrat voters will not vote. I hope they prove me wrong. I hope that the unions and the Native associations and others who normally support Democrats will get out the vote. I don't think they will, and again, I hope I am wrong.
Most Alaskan voters support the legalization of marijuana, abortion rights, and strict restrictions on development in Bristol Bay. Most voters in Anchorage oppose Mayor Dan Sullivan's attempts to defeat the public-sector unions. Yet the Republicans win. Democrats -- you had better learn to vote.
Sean O'Hare is a professional in the freight transportation industry and holds a master's degree in political science from California State University-Hayward (now Cal State-East Bay). He lives in Anchorage.
The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, e-mail commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com