John Baker leads the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race Monday morning into Elim, just 115 miles from the Nome finish. Although challenger Ramey Smyth from Wasilla has made some bold moves on the Bering Sea coast and drawn within 10 miles of Baker on the trail, the race leader from on up the coast in Kotzebue continues to leverage a surplus of rest and a slight traveling speed advantage.
Despite this, veteran mushers on my contact list still rank this year's race a "No Call" even as Baker demonstrates command.
Here's what's in play: Baker has been husbanding his team of 11 chargers west with a wise and established game plan of periodic rests. In this way, he has remained about two hours in front of Smyth and third-place shadow Hans Gatt from Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada, another hour behind.
Amongst mushing insiders, a 2-hour advantage at Unalakleet and on up the coast is considered formidable, but not a guaranteed cushion for a win.
Smyth, known to save his big moves for the final days of the race, on Sunday gambled by moving from Unalakleet to Koyuk with minimum rest to catch sight of Baker. The move appears to have cost his team some of its zip in comparison to Baker's dogs, but Smyth and team have nevertheless remained in contact with the leader -- something thas has to be giving Baker pause at this point.
Smyth is legendary for his physical participation behind the sled on tough sections of trail, and the veteran of 16 previous Iditarods knows that the Elim-to-Golovin section of trail is the most challenging along the coast. A monstrous climb from the beach over a hill nicknamed "Little McKinley" greets teams where the trail portages over a peninsula that juts into the Bering Sea. Baker is not known for running behind the sled, so Smyth may be thinking that the 1,000-foot grunt to a saddle in the Kwiktalik Mountains is his opportunity to gain minutes on the lead. Any slight falter on this section by Baker, and Smyth could find himself close enough to race with Baker on the final leg of Iditarod from White Mountain to Nome.
The unfolding events rest primarily on the strategic consideration of that last leg. If Smyth can stay in contact with Baker untill White Mountain, he has a chance. An 8-hour mandatory rest is required in White Mountain.
At this stage of the race, an 8-hour rest on a straw bed is marvelously recuperative for the dogs. They are now well accustomed to the rituals of the race. They will eat another calorie-rich meal and then immediately fall into a deep slumber. At the end of eight hours, Baker and Smyth could essentially be even up on team rest. The leaders in their teams will likely, at this point, yodel and bark in a demand to go at the end of the mandatory. They could make this a whole new race, not unlike what happened after the 24-hour mandatory rest near halfway when re-energized teams emerged to changed the whole character of this year's Iditarod.
This is Smyth's vision for staying in the race, and Baker's fear.
Smyth has acquired near-legendary status for his closing finishes on the trail from White Mountain into Nome. He has often proven amazing on the last 20 miles of trail from the final checkpoint at Safety, about 20 miles out of Nome. More than one pundit has told me that, "Ramey will chose his best six dogs in Safety and run behind the sled. He can gain 20 minutes on anyone in the field in the last 22 miles of the race."
Smyth has destroyed enough celebration parties by passing teams in the last day of the Iditarod to be recognized as the "real deal" here. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Baker has plenty of rest to blow through Elim and on to White Mountain, but some of my experts think he will prudently give his team an hour's break in Elim. He still has the advantage over his followers. Still, look for high anxiety in Elim for fans of mushers Baker, Smyth, and Gatt.
Joe Runyan, champion of the 1985 Yukon Quest International Sled Dog Race and 1989 Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race, worked with former Iditarod champion Jeff King on his book, "Cold Hands, Warm Heart" as well as with defending Iditarod champion Lance Mackey on his autobiography, "The Lance Mackey Story", and is providing commentary and analysis of Iditarod 39 for Alaska Dispatch.