Martin Buser has moved into the lead of the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race, the result of a calculated early run to his 24-hour layover. The question remains whether Buser's lead will last over the race's final 400 miles, or if any of the dozen veterans trailing close on his heels can put together a strong enough surge to catapult their team into the lead.
McGrath, Cripple, Ruby, Galena, and Unalakleet all have special awards for the first (not fastest) musher to arrive at their checkpoint. This year's midway prizes of cash, food, fish and art make nice stories for fans and help draw attention to the villages along the trail that host the Iditarod spectacle. Mushers are always gracious in their acceptance of the awards, but all of them would trade those prizes for the big one: first to Nome.
The northern route of the Iditarod trail takes mushers 140 miles on the Yukon River between Ruby, Galena, Nulato and Kaltag. Over the years, two strategies have evolved for tackling this section of trail:
• Strategy A breaks the Yukon into three shorter runs with stops at three of the checkpoints, typically Ruby, Galena and Kaltag.
• Strategy B breaks the Yukon into two 70-mile runs with stops in Ruby and Kaltag and a trailside campout midway between Galena and Nulato.
Expect mushers to choose the strategy that best fits their team's training style and current condition. Mushers who feel a long run might take too much speed out of their team may opt for the shorter runs with shorter rests at the checkpoints. Others who feel it is best to give their team a longer break may choose the campout option and take a single six-hour break rather than a couple three-hour breaks. The trend towards longer runs and shorter rests in recent years has made strategy B the preferred choice of most mushers.
Yesterday's race leaders Jeff King of Denali Park and Sonny Lindner of Two Rivers will be coming off a 24-hour rest in Ruby. I expect both of them will employ strategy B and rest in the middle of the afternoon, halfway to Kaltag. They will continue their plan of delaying mandatory rests as far down the trail as possible, taking their eight-hour Yukon River break at Kaltag. This plan sets them up to have the most rested teams at the finish. King and Lindner undoubtedly hope that translates to the fastest teams at the finish.
Yukon River conditions could be described as typical this year. Village checkpoint temperatures on the riverbanks are usually 15 to 20 degrees warmer than the minus 20 temperatures the mushers are encountering on the river. The river trail is reportedly hard packed due to Iron Dog snowmachine race traffic two weeks ago and the lack of recent snowfall. The warm spell last week that melted the scant snow north of the Alaska Range helped consolidate the top layer of river trail. Most important, the prevailing north wind is at mushers' backs as they run downriver, a major difference appreciated by Iditarod race veterans who have faced the brutally cold headwinds on the southern route that runs upriver during odd numbered years.
Aliy Zirkle of Two Rivers, the runner-up in the last two Iditarods, took advantage the great river trail conditions last night to extend her measured eight-hour runs all the way to Galena, temporarily taking over the overall race lead this morning. Zirkle has not rested in a checkpoint since she left Takotna a day and a half ago. This is a repeat of her 2012 race plan with one notable difference: She is 10 hours ahead of her 2012 race time at Galena. Zirkle's run times are hard to compare to the other mushers due to her trail rest between checkpoints.
Robert Sorlie, the two-time champion from Norway, continued to post fast times on his run from Cripple to Ruby, but he made an inexcusable mistake in his departure by taking an extra half-hour break. Iditarod rules mandate all mushers take an eight-hour break at a Yukon River checkpoint of their choice. Robert spent eight and a half hours in Ruby, giving up 30 minutes to his competitors. Rarely do top teams make such mistakes, and Sorlie is surely hoping that he is not less than 30 minutes behind any team arriving in Nome.
Aaron Burmeister of Nome refuses to give in to his injured leg, placing faith in his outstanding dog team. His bounce back into the top 10 is due, in part, to a revitalized team after 24 hours in Cripple. Burmeister made the 130-mile run from Cripple to Galena in two long pushes, with just a short rest outside of Ruby. Who knows if he can maintain that pace of run and rest, but I suspect he may fall off the lead pack if he does not rest his dogs more.
Nick Petit continues to surprise the leaders with his blazing fast dog team. Petit posted the fastest run time so far from Cripple to Ruby (eight hours, 40 minutes) and is still running 15 dogs down the Yukon River. Petit is almost exactly five hours behind race leader Buser. Last year Petit moved up from 15th place in Kaltag to sixth in Nome. He knows how to finish. If Buser falters and Petit can rally in the second half like he did last year, we may have a new champion.
Where are the Seaveys? Mitch and Dallas Seavey continue to lurk behind the lead pack of mushers, a place they are comfortable with at this point in the race. After four days of running nearly identical race schedules, they have finally diverged in their plans with Mitch opting for shorter runs and rests and Dallas going long since Cripple. Now, it becomes a game of leapfrog between the two, all the while hoping to jump past a few of the other teams ahead of them on the way to the coast.
Only one rookie, Abbie West, is in the top 25. West is a three-time Yukon Quest finisher, so she is no rookie when it comes to ultra-marathon sled dog racing. West is running what could be described as an all-star Bush dog team, combining the best sled dogs of four smaller kennels located in the nether regions of Alaska.
But the race for Iditarod rookie of the year is heating up and is one of the many exciting sidelights of this year's Iditarod. Close to West are Iditarod rookies Nathan Schroeder of Minnesota and Katherine Keith of Kotzebue (via Minnesota). Schroeder is a three-time champion of the 400-mile John Beargrease race, the most competitive mid-distance race in the Lower 48. Keith is running a second string of dogs out of Iditarod record holder John Baker's kennel and has placed well in many Alaska mid-distance races. In her spare time, Keith trains and competes in Ironman-length triathlons. It is unlikely we will see any of these rookies finish in the top 10, as Norwegian Joar Ulsom did in his rookie run last year.
The top 15 veteran teams are all running in the "red zone," pushing their dogs and themselves to their physical limits. Inevitably, a few of the lead teams will falter when the dogs can no longer maintain the pace required to win. Veteran mushers will begin to pull back as they exchange this year's race goals with the long-term goals of their kennel.
Pay particular attention to run times as teams travel down the Yukon during the next 24 hours. In order to catch Buser by the finish, the chase teams will need run times averaging at least 30 minutes faster per checkpoint, assuming they take equal rest. The only other way to catch up is to rest at least 30 minutes less at each checkpoint, a dangerous tactic so late in the race.
The Yukon River is the "meat" of the race, the main course where the best teams begin to separate from the pack. It's time to dig in.
Zack Steer, a five-time Iditarod finisher, owns and operates the Sheep Mountain Lodge with Anjanette and two young boys. Zack will bring a competitive racer's analysis to this year's Iditarod coverage. Follow Zack's race analysis at Alaska Dispatch.