Anchorage expected to gain jobs this year, according to forecast

Growth in health care, hospitality, and construction is expected to help boost jobs in Anchorage this year after three years of job losses, a new economic report says.

Alaska’s largest city is expected to have modest job growth in 2019 with a net gain of 300 jobs, according to the Anchorage Economic Development Corp.'s annual forecast. The report, released by AEDC this week, was prepared by Anchorage research firm the McDowell Group.

This year is expected to mark the bottom of a statewide recession that started in late 2015, the AEDC said.

The health care industry in Anchorage is expected to add 400 jobs. Both construction and leisure and hospitality are projected to grow by 200 jobs, and oil and gas is forecast to add 100 jobs this year.

Some sectors, such as government, professional and business services (including engineers, attorneys, and architects), and financial activities are expected to lose jobs.

[Alaska expected to gain jobs in 2019 after three years of losses, state says]

Though there are a number of things that could determine whether Anchorage and Alaska as a whole return to employment growth this year after losing thousands of jobs, the state budget gap is “of most immediate importance,” the AEDC said.

“While this employment forecast reflects some optimism for 2019, the state’s $1.6 billion budget deficit looms large,” the report said. “A misstep in how that deficit is managed could easily push Anchorage employment trends back into negative territory.”

Though Alaska’s economy is improving, “the pending recovery is fragile,” the AEDC said.

“The roller-coaster stock market, trade disputes with China, the federal budget debacle, concern that the U.S. economic expansion (now going on nine years) may soon lose steam, oil price volatility, and Brexit, are among the many external forces that may shape Alaska’s economy in 2019,” the report said.