It is time to begin to take stock of the nearly concluded 2014 Senate campaign in Alaska. As of this writing, Sen. Begich trails Dan Sullivan by 8,000 votes. It is highly doubtful that the senator can regain that ground when the Division of Elections counts the absentee, early and challenged ballots on Tuesday. Almost certainly, Dan Sullivan will be our next senator. Sullivan, Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Rep. Don Young will form an all-Republican congressional delegation from Alaska. They will join the 114th Congress in 2015, with solid Republican majorities in both houses.
The media has noted Begich's reluctance to concede on election night, but perhaps it is time in Alaska to end the customary expectation of election-night concession. Over the last 15 years in America, a surprising number of elections to national and gubernatorial office have ended with the tiniest margins behind the victor, and even Begich's first election to the U.S. Senate in 2008 flipped from defeat to victory after election day, when additional Alaskans' ballots were counted. Early concessions can be premature and are unnecessary thanks to our political stability.
With one of the lowest party-affiliation rates in America, Alaska voters are not animated by excessive partisan zeal and will not disturb the peace if we must wait until every last vote is counted and elections are certified. Besides that, by remaining patient, our citizens pay due honor to those who participated. Candidates and their supporters earned those votes, and in a larger sense, all campaigns serve the public good. The vitality of free government depends upon lively political theater, and even candidates destined for defeat play an essential supporting role.
As we close the book on this campaign season, Alaskans of all political persuasions might pause to appreciate the remarkable pluck demonstrated by Sen. Begich. In 2008 his seat in the Senate might have seemed a gift from heaven due to the legal imbroglio that ensnared the man he replaced, Sen. Ted Stevens. But in 2014 Begich showed that he was no accidental candidate. His odds were much longer than his current deficit behind Dan Sullivan measures, and it is a testimony to his campaign skill that he kept the race this close.
U.S. senators and representatives in Washington are under great pressure to vote with their party caucus, and the leaders of Begich's party, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama needed every Democratic vote they could muster to enact their sweeping health care, financial services and stimulus policies. Begich loyally supported his leadership, though his political principles were probably more libertarian than might be adduced by his votes. But his votes made him vulnerable in Alaska, as he certainly knew. Eighteen months ago, he was already running ads in Alaska touting his consistent opposition to the Patriot Act and gun control to distance himself from national Democrats.
For their part, the president and his party lieutenants did nothing to help moderate Democrats like Begich prepare for their tough re-election battles. His leadership's refusal to compromise with their political opposition deprived him of crucial campaign ammunition.
Reid and Obama could have allowed Sen. Begich or his colleagues to take up any small handful of myriad bills passed by the House and to move them to conference. Senate Democrats could have then negotiated constructive settlements, and the president might have signed the final bills into law. Rather, Sen. Reid and the president showed no interest in working with the House. Had they done otherwise, Begich could have improved his standing with Alaska voters. He might have held up reform legislation that fixed admitted problems with the Affordable Care Act or Dodd-Frank, but instead he was left to defend his votes, and his opposition was able hang the problematic legislation around his neck. Finally, in his ill-advised public speech late in the campaign, Obama reminded midterm voters that every one of his policies were on the ballot in November. Though this sunk Begich, he arguably outperformed most other Democratic Senate candidates, who lost by larger margins or lost in states where Obama's approval rating was higher than in Alaska.
The intransigence of the president and his party's national leadership has created the imminent Republican majority in the Senate to match the Republican majority in the House.
Right away, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and presumptive Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell both announced that they intend to first develop legislation aimed at improving our economy by focusing on energy. This energy prescription for our economy was exactly the solution Dan Sullivan offered to Alaskans on the campaign trail. And, as former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Sullivan would bring experience that coincides with the needs of this planned legislative initiative. It should not surprise us if his stature in the Senate rises quickly should he prevail.
At the same time, Sen. Murkowski is the ranking member of Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and is in line to become chair when the Republican majority is seated. Over in the House, Don Young continues to serve as an at-large member of the Committee on Natural Resources. Hence, within a few months, our Alaska Congressional delegation will be in prime position to influence new energy policy, which seems to be the top priority of the Republicans' legislative agenda. Those who know Alaska's energy economy best may soon be crafting legislation that touches the deepest interest in our state. Provided that this president or the new president in 2017 can come to an agreement with Congress, the planets could be aligning for a new economic boom in Alaska.
Ironically, the factors that caused Sen. Begich's expected electoral loss might also have contributed to Alaska's anticipated gain in Washington. However, the senator might not remain on the bench for long, if he does not mind swapping the perquisites of senatorial life for less glamorous service to his beloved state. Rumor has it that if Bill Walker survives the final ballot count and becomes our next governor, he will be especially interested in seeking a new appointment to one particular post in his administration. Begich for DNR commissioner?
Dr. Forrest A. Nabors is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Alaska Anchorage.
The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com.