North Carolina Republicans pass redistricting map expected to flip 3 U.S. House seats

RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina’s new maps for the 2024 elections, passed by the General Assembly on Wednesday, are likely to give Republicans who drew them at least three more seats in Congress and shore up their supermajority in the Legislature.

With state law allowing no role for the governor in redistricting, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper cannot take any action to block them from becoming law.

Democrats say the maps are gerrymandered, and they are likely to end up in the courts, where Republican Senate Majority Leader Paul Newton of Cabarrus County predicted they will be upheld as “fair and legal.”

Answering a question Wednesday from Democratic Sen. Mary Wills Bode, who said maps were drawn to favor Republicans, Sen. Warren Daniel said his fellow Republicans agree that “citizens deserve fair elections.”

House Minority Leader Robert Reives, a Chatham County Democrat, said the new maps lack representation for North Carolinians.

“People need to have a voice, sometimes just to let you know what you don’t know,” Reives said.

Critics of the process of drawing the maps gathered outside the Legislative Building for a news conference Wednesday, including Cassandra Stokes of the NC Black Alliance.

“When will this game of political gamesmanship stop, to ensure that access to resources and access to fair representation stands?” Stokes said. “When will you hold yourselves accountable? Because if you don’t, we will in 2024 and future election cycles.”

Changes for current state lawmakers

Redrawn maps shift several districts for currently serving members of Congress and the General Assembly. Some lawmakers’ districts will make it more difficult for them to win reelection.

In the state Senate, Raleigh Democratic Sen. Lisa Grafstein and Sen. Jay Chaudhuri were placed in the same district, or “double-bunked.” Chaudhuri is the Democratic whip and has served more than four terms in the Senate, while Grafstein is a freshman. Grafstein previously told The News & Observer that she might move to a new southern Wake County district without an incumbent, and would make a final decision on Thursday.

Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue, a Raleigh Democrat, said during debate on Wednesday that the loss of Grafstein also means that the only LGBTQ+ and Jewish senator was targeted in the new maps, and that losing Grafstein and Sen. Natasha Marcus would mean two fewer women in the Senate.

Marcus, a Mecklenburg County Democrat, was drawn into a district that double-bunks her with Republican Sen. Vickie Sawyer in a district that favors a Republican.

In the House, Republicans redrew a district for Rep. Tricia Cotham, who was elected as a Democrat in 2022 and switched parties earlier this year. Her new district favors a Republican candidate. House Redistricting Chair Destin Hall acknowledged in committee on Thursday, while being questioned by Marcus, that the district was drawn to favor Cotham’s reelection.

Changes to NC congressional districts for 2024

The congressional map will help determine which lawmakers will stay or go. The current makeup is an even 7-7 split between Democrats and Republicans.

The new map favors Republicans in 10 districts and Democrats in three, with one competitive district.

A new district near Charlotte includes the Cleveland County home of House Speaker Tim Moore, who told reporters on Tuesday that he is considering a run for Congress. Moore said he’d make a decision in the coming weeks.

That district was redrawn to boot out Democratic U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson, who may run for attorney general instead. U.S. Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel was also drawn out of his congressional district, as was Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning. Another Democrat, Rep. Don Davis, had his Eastern North Carolina district drawn to be more competitive.

Another congressional district that doesn’t have an incumbent could be the path for Cotham if she wanted to run for Congress. That southern district could also be where unsuccessful candidate Bo Hines runs, if he tries again in 2024. Hines is from Charlotte and was the Republican candidate for the district that Nickel won in 2022.

On Wednesday, House Redistricting Chair Destin Hall, who is also the powerful Rules chair, said: “There’s no doubt that the congressional map that’s before you today has a lean toward Republicans running in these congressional districts.”

“However, just as I said on the House map, it doesn’t preordain any sort of outcome,” Hall said.

Courts likely next step

Legal challenges to the new maps are all but certain, but opponents will be limited in what arguments they can make.

After gaining a Republican majority in the 2022 elections, the state Supreme Court ruled in April that it would not rule on claims of partisan gerrymandering. That means any lawsuit against the new maps will likely need to focus on racial gerrymandering under the federal Voting Rights Act or the Equal Protection Clause.

Democrats in the Legislature and progressive activists have noted multiple districts in the congressional and legislative maps that they say dilute the voting power of Black residents. Those could form the basis of any impending federal lawsuits.

Candidate filing, primary elections

Candidate filing for the 2024 elections runs from Dec. 4 to Dec. 15.

All 170 General Assembly seats will be on the ballot. In the 2022 elections, many races with Republican incumbents were uncontested by Democrats. North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton has vowed that more Democrats would run in rural areas, which is where most Republican lawmakers serve.

Senate leader Phil Berger, an Eden Republican, is running for reelection to his Senate seat in 2024. With Moore not running for his statehouse seat in 2024, if House Republicans keep the majority they will choose a new speaker.

The 2024 elections will also include North Carolina’s governor and the rest of the 10-person statewide Council of State, from lieutenant governor to attorney general. Some state lawmakers have already declared runs in those races, including state Rep. Jon Hardister, a Whitsett Republican, for labor commissioner; and Rep. Wesley Harris, a Charlotte Democrat, for state treasurer.

The statewide primary election is March 5.