3 takeaways from primaries in Illinois, Ohio and elsewhere

With the general-election matchup between President Biden and former president Donald Trump solidified as of last week, Tuesday began the process of filling out the ballot in some key House and Senate races. Oh, and there were some additional presidential results to chew over.

Both Illinois and Ohio held statewide primaries featuring notable races, while Arizona, Florida and Kansas held only presidential contests.

Below are some takeaways from the results.

1. Ohio GOP goes MAGA again - with help from Democrats

Republicans have yet again bypassed an establishment Republican for a possibly less electable MAGA candidate. And yet again, we’ll soon find out whether that costs them.

Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno defeated state Sen. Matt Dolan by nearly 18 points, with Secretary of State Frank LaRose finishing a distant third.

Moreno will now face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in a state ripe for a GOP pickup. The race could be pivotal on a Senate map that looks good for the GOP - which needs just one or two flips to upset the Democrats’ 51-49 majority. After deep-red West Virginia, Ohio ranks alongside three other “toss-up” states, according to the Cook Political Report.

But there are reasons to believe Moreno could complicate the party’s path to the majority as so many MAGA-aligned candidates and election-deniers have before him. Moreno was not only endorsed by Trump, but he also has labeled Jan. 6 defendants “political prisoners” and the 2020 election “stolen,” after once singing a different tune on such subjects.

Moreno’s victory comes two weeks after North Carolina Republicans nominated for governor Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor who has espoused many extreme positions.

Democrats also tried to push Moreno across the line late in the primary - effectively joining Trump in that effort. They ran millions of dollars worth of ads ostensibly warning that he was too conservative but in actuality elevating him. This was the latest example of Democrats employing the controversial tactic.

The tactic succeeded in 2022, and there’s reason to believe it could again. Recent polls showed Dolan, who has distanced himself from Trumpism but wasn’t exactly a Never Trumper, running between two and seven points better than Moreno.

Ohio is now a red-leaning state, but Brown has built a strong populist brand there. And while Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) rode his own pro-Trump conversion to victory in 2022, he severely underperformed other statewide Republicans.

This race was going to be a focal point in the battle for the Senate in 2024. It’s now even more so.

2. The Trump protest vote holds strong

Yet again, we saw more Republican primary voters voting against Trump than Democratic ones voting against Biden.

About 1 in 5 voters voted against Trump in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio. And about one-quarter voted against him in Kansas.

By contrast, Biden ceded closer to 1 out of 10 votes in most states holding primaries Tuesday.

[Analysis: Trump is making his personal rewrite of Jan. 6 history a cornerstone of his campaign]

A few observations from the results and exit polls:

There has been some question about just how much Nikki Haley’s showings owe to early voters who cast ballots before she dropped out. But about half of Ohio’s early voting took place after she dropped out, meaning a significant protest vote appears to remain.

Exit polls there also showed 75 percent of Republican primary voters said they would “definitely” back Trump, with 9 percent “probably” backing him. The rest said they were leaning toward Biden (9 percent) or wouldn’t vote for either (7 percent).

It’s possible that includes many voters who were predisposed to voting against the GOP nominee and showed up to register their dismay, as appears to have happened in Georgia. But Florida’s primary Tuesday suggests there might be something more significant at play.

Nineteen percent of Florida GOP primary voters voted for a candidate not named Trump. (That included 4 percent for home-state Gov. Ron DeSantis, who dropped out of the race two months ago and whom Trump has attacked recently.)

That was actually less of a protest vote than in Illinois and Ohio. But crucially, Florida has closed primaries. That means only registered Republicans could vote. In many of these other states, independent voters and even Democrats could come out to vote against Trump, but that wasn’t the case in Florida.

Florida also began its mandatory early-voting period after Haley dropped out, meaning this appears to be more of a pure protest vote from actual Republicans.

If the trend holds, it appears as if about 1 in 5 GOP primary voters are just going to keep voting against Trump.

3. The Trump factor plays big in GOP primaries

Other primary races held Tuesday appeared to confirm that Trump’s backing remains the seal of approval for GOP House primaries - and perhaps more than that, showing that Republicans criticize Trump at their peril.

In Ohio, Republicans frantically searched for an alternative after a tape emerged of leading GOP hopeful Craig Riedel calling Trump “arrogant” and signaling he couldn’t support him. They got one in state Rep. Derek Merrin, who landed Trump’s endorsement shortly before polls opened.

Merrin has been declared the winner, leading Riedel by double digits in a district (held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur) that will be a key battleground in November.

In Ohio’s 2nd District, three candidates laying claim to the MAGA label finished in the top three in a crowded primary. Meanwhile, a former Cincinnati City Council member who criticized Trump for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election - and got some significant help from a like-minded super PAC - was at just 5 percent.

Trump’s endorsement also might have saved Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), who faced a MAGA primary challenger backed by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.). Bost led 2022 Illinois gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey 52-48 with 94 percent of the vote in. (A winner hasn’t been declared, but Bailey has conceded.)

Bost’s district is one of several in which incumbent House members are supporting challengers to their colleagues - a highly unusual circumstance.