What’s possible — and what isn’t — as we seek a COVID-19 ‘new normal’

As Anchorage enters a second month of COVID-19 “hunker down," two opposing phenomena are taking place at once. The realities of sheltering in place are seeming less bizarre and more ordinary, but the economic impact of the coronavirus and the lockdown are deepening and causing Alaskans to ask: “When will we be able to go back to normal?”

The answer depends on your definition of “normal."

Bad news first: Some things we considered “normal” before won’t be back for a long time. A return to the pre-coronavirus way of life hinges on an effective vaccine. And although vaccine candidates are already being tested, the length of the trials (to ensure there aren’t serious side effects that only show up well after the shot is administered) means that a vaccine won’t be available, even in the best case, for many months (and that doesn’t account for the mass production of the vaccine, which will need to be administered to nearly everyone on the planet). It’s hard to imagine events like music festivals, sporting events (at least ones with fans in close proximity to one another) and other large-scale gatherings taking place before that occurs. Will it also endanger the prospects for smaller-scale gatherings such as church services? School classes? The answer will likely lie in how well we can adapt those services to our new reality.

But it’s not all bad news. Alaska has so far been fortunate when it comes to COVID-19: We didn’t have outbreaks here before the scope of the pandemic became clear, our governor and mayors took decisive action before there was widespread community transmission of the disease, and Alaskans have mostly respected the health mandates imposed by city and state government. Together, those three strokes of good fortune have kept Alaska at or near the bottom of U.S. states for both confirmed cases and deaths. And they’ve enabled us to begin the discussion about when and how it will be prudent to ease restrictions on movement and economic activity, rather than when and how we will outstrip the capacity of our health care system.

It’s far too early to declare “Mission Accomplished." Clearly, we have not yet beaten COVID-19, a fact which will become apparent in short order if we disregard safety and distancing measures. As Alaska moves to resume elective medical services, the first step down the path seeking a balance between protection from COVID-19 and the return to a functioning economy, it is more imperative than ever that we abide by health mandates. As other states have learned, even momentary lapses in judgment can and will prove disastrous when it comes to the virus’ spread. The same will be true as other sectors of the economy and state are slowly re-opened.

With that in mind, how do we go about keeping ourselves safe while attempting to mitigate the economic harm and maintain a functioning society? With an abundance of two things: testing and caution. Being able to keep COVID-19 in check and forestall widespread outbreaks will require certainty about who is infected and who may be, and keeping those people isolated until it’s clear they’re healthy. On the caution front, the only way we can determine what’s safe is by altering just one variable at a time. The return to elective medical procedures is exactly such a step: It allows for a narrow return to “normalcy” in an otherwise tightly controlled environment. If changing that variable results in greater spread of COVID-19, we can shut the door again before transmission gets out of control. Similar measures could be taken with disparate geographies that are relatively isolated.

What’s needed next is for the public to stay engaged, follow the lead of of our governor and mayors and heed their guidance strictly. But all the guidance in the world wont matter if each of us, as individuals, don’t maintain vigilance. Re-opening the economy, a goal we all share, can only be done if we move as one. The minute we think we’ve got this licked is when we could get into serious trouble. But if we do this right, together, we can thread a delicate needle to mitigate suffering — both human and economic.

It will be a slow process, no doubt more frustrating and economically painful than many would prefer. But we don’t have the luxury of choosing the speed with which we return to “normal.” As Gov. Mike Dunleavy said last week of the first steps the state is taking, “We’re going to watch it very, very carefully. We’re not going to put anything before the … health and welfare of Alaskans." That’s the right approach.