A number of forums have recently been held to clarify the choices voters have regarding Ballot Measure 1: the oil tax initiative. The purpose of a forum is to provide participants with information that will enable them to make fact based decisions. This assumes the information provided in support of a yes or no vote is factual and understandable. Complex subjects like oil tax policy defy understandable explanation. Even the “experts” struggle. If the arguments are not understandable, how can their conclusions be trusted?
Alaskans are once again faced with choosing which argument will be best for Alaska. Which one do we believe? Arguments based on warnings of harmful future impacts are based on assumptions – guesses. Arguments based on past experience are more reliable in evaluating impacts. Past experience is also valuable in determining which of the protagonists can be trusted. Do we trust the oil industry or the many citizens who developed and signed the initiative petition? Both are questions of trust.
This is the second time Alaskans have faced this decision. In 2014 voters chose the arguments presented by the oil industry that promised three rewards for not increasing oil taxes (repeal of SB 21). They promised:
• low taxes would stimulate increased investment in the discovery and development of new oil fields,
• low taxes would increase the volume of oil flowing through the pipeline, and
• low taxes would protect the jobs of Alaskans in the oil industry.
None of these promises were kept. Immediately after the election, BP cut 475 jobs and over the ensuing years overall employment in the oil industry decreased by 5,000 and the percentage of non-residents in the workforce increased.
The volume of oil flowing through the pipeline did not increase to the promised goal of one million barrels per day. It decreased to below 500,000 barrels per day.
Investment in exploration and development at Prudhoe Bay decreased from $826 million to $202 million.
Why would we choose the same arguments today that proved to be false in 2014? Why would we trust those who made promises in 2014 that were not kept?
Bill Hall
Anchorage
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