How to hold (or swipe) the lead in the Yukon Quest sled dog race

If any musher is going to track down Yukon Quest leader Brent Sass without the help of a disaster — which, admittedly, has befallen the Eureka musher from time to time — the 300 miles between Dawson and Circle on the Alaska side of the border is where it probably needs to happen.

And according to race trackers, Sass was hanging onto a 22-mile lead over second-place Hugh Neff about midway through that run Thursday as the top half of the field pulled out of Dawson after a 36-hour rest and headed for the Alaska border.

Sure, a dramatic move can be made in the final 200 miles as well, especially with Eagle Summit, Rosebud and Sass's nemesis — Birch Creek — all in that stretch. Birch Creek is where Sass dozed off for nine hours in 2015, a nap that nearly cost him victory.

But the 300 miles coming off of the 36-hour break in Dawson is where a team could use the remoteness (only one checkpoint) to sneak up on Sass.

Alternatively, Sass could widen the gap and no one behind him would know.

Expect three strategies for that 300-mile stretch, which should take more than 40 hours of running. Call them The 4, The 5 and The 6.

The 4

If someone wants to make a big move, this is the way to do it: Two 10-hour runs into Eagle, followed by a mandatory four-hour stop, then a 13-hour run to Slavens and a eight-hour run into Circle.

A musher could split the run between Eagle and Circle evenly and skip Slavens (that would be a shame — it's my favorite spot in any dog race). Slavens is usually about 15 degrees warmer on the high bank alongside the Yukon than it is down on the river.

From the looks of the top five racers, I think it would be a big mistake for Sass to do this. He is in the driver's seat with a speedy team. A win is a win regardless of your margin over the second-place team. Matt Hall, the musher in third place at the halfway point in Dawson, could try this. He left Dawson with 13 dogs, as many as anyone in the race.

I have stopped making predictions concerning Neff. Call him unconventional. Or call him crazy (I thought I had every strategy mapped out last year, but the one thing I didn't take into consideration was the "Hugh Effect" — or his unpredictability. Neff won the race). This is definitely in his wheelhouse, though. Such a move would be out of character for Allen Moore or Ed Hopkins.

Estimated time from Dawson to Circle: 56 hours

The 5

Two long runs into Eagle, the mandatory stop and then splitting the run to Slavens into two segments (stopping at Trout Creek on the way). Then an eight-hour run into Circle.

I could see Sass making a run like this with a solid five-hour break (ideal for his team) in the middle of the long run to Eagle. This could give him a chance to push hard into Eagle and see where his competitors are when he arrives. With only seven hours separating the top five, I expect a few mushers to employ this strategy.

Estimated time from Dawson to Circle: 58 hours

The 6

Six relatively easy runs, no more than eight hours, with five rests. If your goal is to move up in the standings but not win, this is a good one. Since the runs are short you could cut some rest on all five stops (instead of five- or six-hour rests, you could do all fours).

This seems to be suited for Moore and Hopkins this year.

Estimated time from Dawson to Circle: 61 Hours

Stay tuned to see who chooses what — this is the crucial stretch of the Yukon Quest.

Jake Berkowitz was the fourth-place finisher in the 2012 Yukon Quest, and a five-time Iditarod racer who finished as high as eighth in that 1,000-mile race. Watch for his Iditarod analysis columns once the race to Nome begins.