Everyone in the world, it seems, has an opinion as to whether or not Sarah Palin is going to run for president. The naysayers say she's just trying to boost her profile so she can make more money on the speakers' circuit and sell more books. Some -- including many of her fans -- say of course she is. And her high profile bus tour, which includes stops in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina, confirms it. It's these fans who are paying for it.
The "One Nation Tour" is, in fact, bought and paid for by the former Alaska governor's political action committee, SarahPAC. Surf to the website and you'll be welcomed with a colorful graphic announcing the tour, inviting you to follow the Palins across the country, and soliciting donations to pay for it all. Supporters of the former Alaska governor fund SarahPAC. Supporters are paying for the vacation, Palin testily confirmed Wednesday.
And it's legal, and not subject to federal election laws as long as she hasn't declared she's running, or using the tour and the money she's making on the tour to gauge if she's running.
Palin's political action committee was founded to influence federal elections. She isn't, nor has she ever been, a federal elected official. She can use the donations made by supporters to her PAC in any way she sees fit -- so long as she follows the laws of individual states where the money is being spent. The PAC can buy her bus and her wardrobe. PAC donations can buy her mom a new wardrobe. Nothing (that's legal) is off limits.
"If she wanted to, she could use the money to buy a hooker in Las Vegas," said Brett Kappel, a campaign finance lawyer with the Washington, D.C., firm Arent Fox.
But what if there's more to this bus tour of sites deemed by Palin as important to American liberty, not to mention those "first in the nation" primary states? If Palin is gearing up for a presidential run, she'd be following a long line of candidates before her, beginning with Ronald Reagan, who have been accused of using PAC money to skirt the bounds of federal election laws.
Campaign restrictions were established post-Watergate, in 1976. The very next year, a young Ronald Reagan, fresh from a presidential loss, formed a PAC called "Citizens for the Republic," into which he dumped $1.6 million of unused campaign contributions. And for the next two years, Reagan -- one of Palin's political heroes -- raised money for his PAC, which allowed him to travel throughout the country, pressing the flesh, giving speeches, all without officially declaring. And it's gone on from there.
Sound familiar?
Kappel thinks the Palins are just having a really nice vacation on PAC money -- and, of course, getting all the media attention that might go to other prospective candidates while she's at it. If that's the course Palin is tracking, she risks alienating, perhaps for good, the very fans who helped pay for her tour.
Here's how Nicole Coulter at Conservatives4Palin put it:
Don't count on Palin herself saying that the tour is a means for her to "test the waters" or any other similar euphemism. She's been maddeningly vague. At various times Palin has said she's seriously considering a run and that she's got "fire in her belly." Most recently, she told Greta Van Susteren of FOX News that the tour "is not about me. It's not a publicity-seeking tour. It's about highlighting the great things about America."
As a paid Fox News contributor, she might have been smart to be vague. Fox News has cut contracts with other prospective nominees, but they didn't, as of Thursday, cut her contract.
But more than that, Palin has steered clear, some would say wisely, of saying anything about "One Nation" being a vehicle to test the waters, a campaign finance legal phrase that would mean a different set of disclosure requirements on behalf of SarahPAC. If the bus tour was Palin's way of feeling out a presidential run, and she raised money to do so and admitted as much, she could be subject to federal election laws restricting how much money she could raise on the trail to gauge or build support, Kappel said.
Others think it dishonest of Palin to remain so coy with one hand out, asking her supporters to fund a family vacation to historic sites in American history.
Campaign finance law 101
It may be true that Palin simply hasn't decided yet whether or not she'll run, and that "One Nation" is in no way part of her decision-making process. Kappel noted FEC laws that designate the period of time between having a mind to run and deciding to at least "test the waters" for a run are ambiguous. And they are that way for a reason.
Once Palin announces she's in it or even that she's raising money to see if she's in it then she's officially testing the waters. No separate FEC filings are required for the exploratory phase of a federal campaign. In fact, she doesn't have to test or explore anything. She could just announce her intention to run for president tomorrow, Kappel said.
The law was intended to give prospective candidates some room from public scrutiny to do some polling, say, travel around the country, meet with contributors without having to file a public document. If a candidate decides against running, nobody's the wiser. He or she can drop out with reputation and pride intact.
But if a prospective candidate moves on to formally declare candidacy, all of the money he or she raised to explore a campaign must be reported. And donors are subject to a $2,500 contribution limit.
For example: If Joe Six Pack gave $2,000 any time after the exploratory limit was in place, he could then only give another $500 to Palin's presidential campaign, according to FEC law. And once Palin either raised or distributed more than $5,000 toward that "testing the waters" exploratory phase, she would then be required to officially declare her intentions one way or the other.
From there, federal laws get even more restrictive.
Paul Ryan, an election law analyst from the non-partisan Campaign Legal Center, said the game is to wait for as long as you can before you are subject to FEC laws, because, in a nutshell, you can raise much more money doing so. Most candidates do it, he said. And the FEC is notoriously lousy on enforcement.
As of now, an individual Palin supporter can donate up to $5,000 to SarahPAC.
Palin bus tour doesn't pass the 'straight-face test'
Ryan believes Palin's being disingenuous to couch her bus tour as anything other than a presidential gauge.
"It doesn't pass the straight-face test," he said.
Still, if the FEC decided to investigate Palin, Ryan said lawyers could likely argue the fine points of the law, perhaps making the case that the "One Nation" tour had no bearing on her decision-making process, or at least not enough bearing to be considered violating campaign laws. They could subpoena her staff to ascertain if there was any discussion of this being a campaign tour, but they probably won't.
"But regardless of whether or not they could get away with it, it doesn't make it right," Ryan added. "She has run for vice president in the past, and has publicly entertained the notion; to disclaim that she's going on this bus tour for pure fun strains credulity at best."
Contact Amanda Coyne at amanda(at)alaskadispatch.com.