A flat economy may be good but it's even more encouraging as we watch the city turn the corner toward a quick recovery. A year ago, the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation's outlook was for small job losses and no growth in the local economy. Now, that outlook is for a return to growth that will achieve a record of 154,000 jobs in Anchorage by 2013.
While we predicted a loss of 300 jobs for 2009, revised Department of Labor numbers show an actual loss of 900 jobs last year. It was a year that marked the end of a remarkable 20-year job growth cycle for the city. These losses, however, remain mild compared to those suffered by the rest of the nation and I'm pleased to report that we're on a swift rebound.
In January, AEDC forecast a loss of 1,200 jobs in 2010, and today we're softening that figure to 500 fewer jobs by year's end. This is based on very small job losses in the first half of the year and several indicators that we are on the rebound and may cross over into positive growth territory in the next few months. Time will tell.
Bright spots for job growth in the last year include health care and government, continuing to grow from the 1,100 jobs added last year. Other sectors have experienced relatively minor job losses so far this year. Anchorage's oil and gas employment numbers have held steady at between 2,600 and 2,700 jobs, though statewide the industry has lost about 1,500 from its peak employment of 13,700 in 2008. With 58 percent of North Slope oil workers residing in Anchorage, the Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su, this loss may still have a profound effect on our regional economy. For perspective, in 2009 Southcentral oil industry workers earned $568 million and North Slope oil industry workers who live in Anchorage, the Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su brought home an additional $482 million. Combined, that's $1.05 billion in direct payroll impact the oil and gas industry has on our regional economy.
As we look to the future we must keep in mind the difficulty and uncertainty ingrained in longer term projects like the gas pipeline, development in National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, mining at Donlin Creek, oil exploration of the outer continental shelf of Alaska's north coast and the many others trying to get off the ground in Alaska. With that caveat, our 3-Year Economic Outlook predicts a return to modest growth by the end of the year with a return to steady, moderate growth over the next three years, with overall employment reaching record levels in 2013.
AEDC tracks eight indicators to show trends for the coming three years: population, employment, personal income, air passenger volume and air cargo volume, building permit values, Port of Anchorage tonnage volume, visitor industry trends and oil prices. A few highlights serve to show why we have a positive outlook for the next three years.
The Anchorage Economic Development Corporation predicts a stronger than average population growth over the near term with total population surpassing the 300,000 mark in 2011, due to a poor economy in the Lower 48. In addition to strong population growth, another indicator, personal income, is projected to remain flat for 2010, and grow at around 3 percent over the next three years. While the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport was down considerably in passenger and cargo numbers in 2009, both are predicted to grow over the next three years. Cargo numbers are already up significantly over the last nine months. These factors among others are referenced in our 3-Year Economic Forecast available at www.AEDCweb.com and form the basis of our positive outlook for the Anchorage economy.
It's not an easy road we are headed down. But it is a road built on growth, albeit modest growth, but growth none the less. So let's get down to business.
Bill Popp is CEO and president of the Alaska Economic Development Corporation.
By BILL POPP