Gov. Sarah Palin leaves office today. The reaction to her resignation among Alaskans has been strangely contradictory: People criticize her for being a quitter, yet in the next breath say, "good riddance," and, "glad to see her go." Sarah Palin is no quitter, but it is good that she is moving on.
On June 28 I wrote, "When it comes to letting the public know what her government is doing, Sarah Palin is either a cynical hypocrite or delusional." Five days later Palin announced she was resigning. Several readers suggested my column might have played a role in Palin's decision. An Alaska lawyer and public official wrote, "I wonder if your article was the breaking point?"
A Wasilla physician e-mailed that I am part of a media conspiracy to hound her from office. An e-mail from another reader said I was doing the work of "the DEVIL himself!!!"
With due respect to readers, that's ridiculous. It's true that the press attention has been tough on the Palin family. And it's equally true that by stepping down, Palin can quickly resolve her family's money problems with five-figure speaking fees, six-figure book advances and similar payments from the social conservative faithful for her services, but that's all incidental. The No. 1 reason Palin called it quits is that resignation opens a credible path to the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
Palin's chance to become a contender for the Republican nomination depends on one thing: She must prove she can mobilize voters to elect Republicans in the 2010 midterm elections. Palin receives adulatory receptions from social conservatives across the country, but here in Alaska she's a lightning rod for controversy and criticism. Had she remained our governor, the drumbeat of adverse news from Alaska would have intensified. Freeing herself from that wellspring of controversy will quiet fears of right-wing congressional and senatorial candidates that some political, legal or personal bombshell lobbed from Alaska could strike while she is campaigning in their district. Eliciting invitations from those candidates in 2010 is essential to Palin's strategy. Without those invitations, she has no chance to display her star power and prove she can mobilize the social conservative base and win elections.
For most governors, the opportunity to implement such a national campaign strategy would be weighed against the loss of gubernatorial power. That's not an issue for Palin.
During her first 18 months as governor, Palin focused on overhauling the state's policies on gas pipelines and petroleum taxes. She was brilliantly successful. One reason was the alliance she forged with Democratic legislators. Another was the reluctance of Republican legislators who supported the oil industry to oppose Palin in the face of her unprecedented popularity. In September 2007, 10 months after her inauguration, according to the Hays Research Group, an astounding 87 percent of Alaska voters had positive or very positive feelings about Sarah Palin.
That has all changed. Palin's alliance with Democrats disappeared in the smoke of the 2008 Troopergate investigation. Relations with Democrats further soured after Palin's nomination as the Republican vice-presidential candidate and her campaign attacks on Barack Obama.
A Hays poll taken in May of this year showed Palin's popularity among Alaska voters down by 33 points. That dramatic drop emboldened her Republican legislative opponents. In terms of shaping policy, Palin's work as governor was finished, regardless of whether she stayed or resigned. Indeed, she can reasonably claim that her Alaska agenda would have better sailing in the Legislature with her out of the picture.
That assumes that Sean Parnell, the man who takes over today as Alaska's governor, will carry forward the Palin agenda. I covered Parnell's career in the Legislature and interviewed him many times on a host of issues. There is little question that he shares Palin's social-conservative predilections, but few remember that he served a term as a legislative lobbyist for Phillips Alaska Petroleum Co., predecessor of Conoco Phillips, the state's largest oil producer. Conoco Phillips has been a principal corporate opponent of Palin's gas pipeline and petroleum tax legislation.
Next Sunday in this space we will take a closer look at Alaska's new governor, his family background, his record during eight years of service in the Legislature, and his careers as a lawyer, lobbyist and bureaucrat after he left the Legislature in 2001. Expect some surprising findings.
Juneau economic consultant Gregg Erickson is editor-at-large of the Alaska Budget Report newsletter. He can be contacted at gerickso@alaska.com .
GREGG ERICKSON
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