In my experience, it's never too early for Alaska Aces fans to begin overreacting and sensing tides of doom.
Hence several members of the Cowbell Crew reached out to this corner of the typing factory to inquire about their considerable concerns for the hockey club -- before the first puck even dropped in training camp.
Truly.
Granted, the Aces' unprecedented 0-3-0 start last weekend did nothing to quell concerns and hinted at, albeit from the tiniest of sample sizes, legitimate questions: Who will score goals? Is the defense deep enough? Um, goaltending?
Still, drawing any serious conclusions after three games of a 72-game regular season screams for pumping the brakes on panic.
Look, first, the Ontario Reign, who conquered the Aces three straight times at Sullivan Arena, appeared to these eyes to be a deep, talented, complete team.
Second, this Aces club is going to be a work in progress -- period. This is an almost entirely new roster. Thus, while Alaska is the ECHL's defending Kelly Cup franchise, it is most definitely not the defending Kelly Cup team.
Third, three games. Take a deep breath. Exhale and relax. Serenity, now.
The uneasiness felt by Aces fans stems from the perspective of history. In 11 previous ECHL seasons, the Aces seized three Kelly Cups, made it to the Finals four times and advanced as far as the conference finals more times (7) than they did not (4), so excellence is expected.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but the rest of the teams currently in the Western Conference have played a combined 49 seasons on the circuit and combined for eight appearances in the conference finals, or one more than the Aces.
Call Aces fans whatever you want -- spoiled, entitled, demanding, passionate -- but they've come by their expectations honestly. It's not as if they champion a mediocre franchise and yet somehow expect great things from it. They view Alaska as a great franchise and expect great things of it.
Still, three games do not merit grumbling about the ghosts of the 2009-10 season. Puckheads with a sense of history remember that campaign as the worst one in club history, mostly because Stockton eliminated Alaska in the first round of the playoffs, marking the Aces' lone first-round exit. Surely, hockey historians out there recall that pitiful season -- you know, the one in which the Aces only finished the regular season eight games above .500. (Oh, and that club started the season with a three-game home sweep -- just sayin.')
Now, eight games over .500 doesn't seem like the end of the world -- until you add up the Aces' other 10 seasons and see that their average regular-season finish has been 25 games above .500.
Making the Aces' struggling start all the more startling was that it took place on home ice, where the franchise has been the best in ECHL history. Last weekend's defeats marked just the third time in 98 three-game series at Sullivan Arena that the Aces were subjected to a clean sweep, with nary a overtime or shootout point pocketed.
A few boos rolled down from stands each game, but when the result was no longer in doubt, there was more stunned silence and a feeling of uneasiness from the crowd. Fans can boo all they want -- comes with buying a ticket. (Still, if you scream "Shooooot'' at a defenseman on the power play when an opposing forward is clearly blocking his shooting lane, you're just embarrassing yourself.)
Going on the road, as the Aces will this week for three games that open with Thursday night's match at Bakersfield, is a good thing for this new team trying to forge its identity. The 0-3-0 start is hard enough. Trying to snap it on home ice would be more pressure still.
The Aces need to fortify themselves in plenty of areas. Too many turnovers. Too many guys getting too cute with the puck. Too many penalties. Not enough chaos created around the opposing net. At least one soft goal surrendered each game. Surrendering the first goal in all three games. (Stat-geek alert: Teams that scored the first goal of a game in the ECHL last season won 72 percent of games.)
This is a team that could stand to play a simple, boring road game, or have a goaltender steal a result, to get a win under its belt.
The rule of thumb this corner has always tried to use as a template is that any firm judgments about the Aces can't be seriously stamped until the regular season hits the quarter pole -- 18 games.
At that point, the season isn't a snapshot but an emerging trend, and it's fair to take the foot off the brake.
This column is the opinion of reporter Doyle Woody. Reach him at dwoody@alaskadispatch.com, check out his blog at adn.com/hockey-blog and follow him on Twitter at @JaromirBlagr
Alaska Aces (0-3-0) at Bakersfield Condors (1-2-0)
6 p.m. ADT
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