Democrats step up pursuit of House Republicans left limping by Donald Trump

LEESBURG, Va. — Emboldened by Donald Trump's struggles in the presidential race, Democrats in Congress are laying the groundwork to expand the list of House Republicans they will target for defeat as part of an effort to slash the Republicans' 30-seat majority and even reclaim control if Trump falls further.

Trump's unpopularity, which has already undermined the party's grip on the Senate, now threatens to imperil Republican lawmakers even in traditionally conservative districts, according to strategists and officials in both parties involved in the fight for control of the House.

Democrats are particularly enticed by Trump's dwindling support in affluent suburban areas — including those near Kansas City, Kansas; San Diego; Orlando, Florida; and Minneapolis — where Republicans ordinarily win with ease. Trump is so disliked among college-educated voters, especially white women, that he is at risk of losing by double digits in several districts that the 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, carried comfortably.

"It's a remarkable situation. We, the Republicans, ought to be in a much stronger position in many suburban areas," said Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, whose district includes both suburbs and small cities. "Because of the nature of the nominee, it's going to be a lot more competitive than it ought to be."

Few Democrats say they believe their party is positioned, at this point, to take control of the House, where Republicans hold their largest majority in 87 years. Because of the way congressional districts are drawn, Republicans have a powerful structural advantage even in a punishing political environment.

But Republicans are also bracing to take more forceful steps if Trump continues to drag down their candidates. Multiple strategists involved in the campaign for control of Congress said Republican outside groups were prepared to run ads treating Trump as a certain-to-lose candidate and urging voters to elect Republicans as a check on Hillary Clinton.

Republican candidates and groups are also weighing a renewed television barrage against Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and the House minority leader, who is unpopular in many swing districts there.

The stakes are high: Should Trump lose the presidential race and take the Republicans' Senate majority with him, handing Democrats the power to break the deadlock over appointees to the Supreme Court, the House could become the party's last line of defense in Washington.

While Democrats have sought publicly to temper expectations that they could win the House, in private meetings, they are laying out ways to expand their battle plan to fight for more seats.

And their donors appear increasingly motivated: Last month, the House Democratic campaign raised $12 million while House Republicans raised just $4.6 million, a remarkable disparity given that the party in control usually dominates fundraising.

Pelosi emailed fellow lawmakers on Thursday and highlighted an academic study that suggested the majority might be within reach, according to someone who received the message, who requested anonymity because the message was supposed to be private.

And at a retreat this month in California that Pelosi convened in Napa Valley, Rep. Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico gave a presentation to donors outlining plans to put new seats in play.

Some of the party's most promising candidates from those districts attended the gathering, which featured California Chardonnays and "red to blue" cards distributed to donors identifying which candidates had the most potential to flip Republican seats.

Luján, who heads the House Democratic campaign committee, said Trump's toxic standing with women had put a range of additional Republican incumbents in jeopardy, according to several people who attended the presentation.

Alixandria Lapp, a Democratic strategist who leads a "super PAC" focused on House races, told the group that the Bergen County, New Jersey, seat held by Rep. Scott Garrett is the kind of Republican district where Democrats could make gains.

Democratic strategists say they believe as many as a dozen districts could become competitive late in the race, depending on Trump's fortunes. Among the Republicans whom Democrats see as newly threatened are Reps. John L. Mica of Florida, who represents the Orlando area; Kevin Yoder of Kansas, from the suburbs of Kansas City; and Michael G. Fitzpatrick, from a district outside Philadelphia. Several others represent diverse, economically comfortable areas of California, including Reps. Darrell E. Issa and Ed Royce, from the San Diego and Los Angeles suburbs.

Both parties are also eyeing a set of moderate- to conservative-leaning open seats in states like Indiana and Minnesota, where incumbents are retiring or running for other offices. Republicans fear that Trump has tainted the party's brand for any prospective successor in areas without a well-known lawmaker already in place.

Rep. Adam B. Schiff of California, who attended the Democratic retreat, said winning the majority was "feasible" because of Trump.

"We'd need to win tossups or even safer Republican seats, but that's what happens in a wave: People get sucked in the undertow," Schiff said. "And there's a real chance of that happening thanks to The Donald."

What ultimately may block Democrats from winning the 30 seats they need to take the House majority are their continued struggles in rural, working-class districts. And many of the suburban districts Democrats hope to contest are expensive to advertise in.

But Republicans acknowledge Trump has taken a toll.

"I don't think we're to the point of losing the majority, but we'd be foolish to be complacent," said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma. "We don't know from one day to next how the top of the ticket will perform."

At their own donor retreat last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, House Republicans were frank about the difficulties Trump has created for their candidates.

Still, strategists for the National Republican Congressional Committee told donors that private polling showed voters were not yet equating vulnerable Republican lawmakers with Trump directly, and stressed that Clinton and Pelosi's unpopularity could be a check on Democratic gains, according to people who attended the retreat.

But at Four Seasons resort where they assembled, there was open talk — and worry — about why House Democrats were outraising their Republican counterparts.

"This pattern is unsustainable," wrote Megan Cummings, the finance director of the House Republican campaign committee, in a pleading email to Washington lobbyists last week. "We can't go another month with the Democrats outraising us by such significant amounts." (House Republicans still have slightly more cash on hand than the Democrats.)

So far, only a small number of Republicans, mainly in moderate suburbs, have taken the unusual step of disavowing their party's presidential nominee.

Some, including Dent of Pennsylvania and Reps. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Dave Reichert of Washington state, have renounced Trump in pointed terms. Others, like Reps. Erik Paulsen of Minnesota and Barbara Comstock of Virginia, have simply declined to say clearly if they will vote for Trump in November.

What worries Republican strategists is not that suburban voters turned off by Trump would migrate en masse to Democrats, but that many might not show up on Election Day at all.

"Our biggest concern would be that they would choose to stay home because they are so disgusted with both people at the top of the ticket," said Mike Shields, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC that backs Republicans. "If they show up, then I think we're in very good shape."

Shields' group announced last week the first wave of a $10 million spending plan, emphasizing more diverse and affluent districts.

Trump has long faced resistance in suburban areas; during the Republican primaries, he often lost upscale suburbs even in states he carried, like Virginia and Georgia.

In Comstock's northern Virginia district, swing voters expressed deep dismay last week about Trump in interviews.

Jean Dura, a retired middle school administrator here in Leesburg, said the 2016 election was "terribly confusing." She said she was undecided about how she would vote for president and Congress, but will definitely not vote for Trump.

"The things he says are atrocious," said Dura, a political independent. "Everybody I've talked to has said the same thing — they say they don't know who to vote for."

LuAnn Bennett, a Democratic real estate developer challenging Comstock, said she intended to link her opponent closely to Trump. She predicted Comstock, who represents a district where most voters have college degrees, would suffer for failing to reject Trump. (A spokesman for Comstock did not respond to an interview request.)

"She's trying to kind of dance on the head of a pin on the Donald Trump issue," Bennett said, adding, "I don't think she has the political courage that our leaders need."